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OSCARS 2006: Picks and Predictions
Who Should Win, Who Will Win, and Who Was Left Out
[February 22, 2006] - by Linda
Check out the full list of nominees (and eventual winners!) of Oscar Nominations 2006. Plus we'll have our awards-show wrap-up after the Oscars on February 25th.BEST PICTURE:
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN
Could it be? Could this finally be Martin Scorcese's year? The Departed was not only a critical crowd-pleaser, but had the biggest box-office of all of the Best Picture nominees. Babel, a complex multi-cultural film aggravated as many people as it enthralled (but Crash showed us that you can't count out huge-cast "message" movies). Letters From Iwo Jima made tons of Top Ten lists, but the public still didn't turn out. The Queen should be happy with Best Actress. That leaves a surprising dark horse, the little comedy that could: Little Miss Sunshine. Wouldn't that be crazy if a roomful of gangsters got run over by a bleating Volkswagen bus? In this race, anything looks possible right now.
Who should win: The Departed
Who will win: The Departed
Who was left out: Once again, none of the nominated films were in my Top Ten for the year. I would have loved to see Volver or United 93 in this category. And why ghetto-ize acclaimed foreign films like Pan's Labyrinth in a separate category?
BEST DIRECTOR:
Alejandro González Iñárritu - BABEL
Martin Scorcese - THE DEPARTED
Clint Eastwood - LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Stephen Frears - THE QUEEN
Paul Greengrass - UNITED 93
I'll bet the Academy is thankful they didn't just give in, and give Martin Scorcese a Best Director Oscar for the so-so effort The Aviator a couple years ago. Now they can (finally!) award him for a much better film. Stephen Frears is probably just happy to be there, as is Paul Greengrass (the lone nominee whose film was not also nominated; seems there's one of these every year, just to shake things up). Alejandro González Iñárritu is greatly admired, and his juggling of four plots in Babel was complex and intense. But the one person who may steal the statue (again!) from Martin just very well may be Clint Eastwood. Darnit if he didn't go ahead and make TWO admired films, and release them back-to-back. "Take that, Scorcese!" (said in best Dirty Harry hiss)
Who should win: Paul Greengrass
Who will win: Martin Scorcese
Who was left out: Most noticeably missing is the husband/wife team Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris of the token "Best Picture That Directed Itself": Little Miss Sunshine. But then there's also hugely talented Guillermo Del Toro whose Pan's Labyrinth is so original and creepy that he's become a director to watch.
BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
The Academy just gave Peter O'Toole an honorary Oscar a couple years ago (oops), but they always have a soft spot for giving out token "This award represents years of good work" awards. Ryan Gosling was superb in Half Nelson, but other than a handful of voters, I think I was the only other person who saw it. Will Smith is beloved by audiences and enjoyed by critics, but his film didn't get the best reviews. Leonardo did great work in a couple of movies this year, but everyone seems to think he got nominated for the wrong one. That leaves Forest Whitaker, a solid and respected actor who has been around for years, who blew people away with his charming and frightening portrayal of Idi Amin. He's been sweeping up awards left and right, so the trophy is his to lose.
Who should win: Forest Whitaker
Who will win: Forest Whitaker
Who was left out: Sacha Baron Cohen's hilarious character Borat has become so ubiquitous that it is hard to remember what the guy is like in real life. (Oh, and he was funny in Talladega Nights, too.
BEST ACTRESS:
Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN
What a delicious category for once! And three (count 'em THREE) of the actresses are over 50! How awesome is that? Judi Dench growled and hissed in a great villain role, while Meryl Streep purred and whispered through hers. Ooooo, they were both soooo good. Kate Winslet, at 31, has been nominated five times (!) and still not won, but I think she'll have to wait until her next nomination to have a chance. There is one woman who has royally swept just about every award out there for her tart and proper role as QEII—The Queen herself, Helen Mirren. But oh my gosh, I would LOVE to see Penélope Cruz to shake things up (and thumb her nose at her detractors) by winning for her warm and earthy role as a woman trying to keep her family together in Volver.
Who should win: ALL OF THEM! But I'd leap from my seat in excitement if Penélope Cruz won.
Who will win: Helen Mirren
Who was left out: Young Shareeka Epps was the other half of Half Nelson, and was riveting in her maturity and sadness.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED
Alan Arkin was hilarious as a foul-mouthed Grandpa who was surprisingly super-supportive of his beauty-pageant-seeking granddaughter. Djimon Hounsou turned in another great performance as the soul of Blood Diamond. Mark Wahlberg simply had to open his mouth to steal every scene he was in. And former child-star Jackie Earle Haley has to be as shocked as anyone else at his comeback—keep giving the man work! But it is the just-as-surprising Eddie Murphy that was thrilling in Dreamgirls, hooting and hollering like James Brown, then withering to a fading has-been druggie. In my opinion, he was easily the best thing about that movie (and no, I'm not forgetting Jennifer Hudson).
Who should win: Eddie Murphy
Who will win: Eddie Murphy
Who was left out: If Alan Arkin got a nomination, why not his young co-star Paul Dano in Little Miss Sunshine? Without speaking through most of his role, he exuded more teenage rage than a scream. And THEN he opened his mouth.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL
What a great year for female roles, with the Supporting Actress category being as juicy as the lead. Sneaking in with a dimpled squeal and oversized glasses comes Abigail Breslin. Do you think she screamed, just like in the movie, when she got her nomination? Cate Blanchett went toe-to-toe with Judi Dench with thrilling results. Rinko Kikuchi was intense with quite literally unspoken passion in Babel, while the strong and sympathetic Adriana Barraza was the soulful center in the same movie. But if any award seems locked up, it's this one. Jennifer Hudson, I think the Academy will help your self-confidence a little more. But despite her great singing in Dreamgirls, I can't be the only one who doesn't think she's much of an actress. Maybe a backlash arrived in time for voting.
Who should win: Adriana Barraza
Who will win: Jennifer Hudson
Who was left out: The entire fabulous ensemble cast of Friends With Money. The scene where Frances McDormand flips out at Old Navy? Priceless.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):
BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
Pan's Labyrinth is known more for its visuals than its script. Likewise people think of The Queen's performances, rather than the screenplay. Iwo Jima is impressive in that its companion piece Flags of Our Fathers WAS adapted from a book. Babel was more of a directing and acting showcase. Which leaves Little Miss Sunshine, full of hilarious one-liners and outrageous comic scenarios. This popular movie may get locked out of the other big awards, so this may be the consolation prize.
Who should win: Little Miss Sunshine
Who will win: Little Miss Sunshine
Who was left out: Speaking of one-liners, the acerbic wit of Friends With Money was both biting and funny. And many argue that Borat belongs in this category, not the other.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTATION):
BORAT CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
People are confused why Borat ended up in this category, which most likely means it won't get the votes, no matter how funny the movie was. Little Children and Notes on a Scandal are two moody dramas with a ton of wit, but haven't made a huge splash with previous awards-shows. Children of Men was an impressive tour-de-force sci-fi action movie, but some viewers were frustrated at the lack of explanation of what was going on (or was it just me?). Which leaves The Departed, which was based on the Hong Kong gangster drama Infernal Affairs. The plot stayed roughly the same, but the language and character interaction was distinctly Scorcese.
Who should win: The Departed
Who will win: The Departed
Who was left out: Apparently the book The Prestige was written as two magician's journals. However, the film adaptation was a magic act in itself with twists and turns to keep you guessing until the end.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
CARS
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE
I've heard that Monster House is really quite twisted and more than a little disturbing (and then there is that horrible "realistic" CGI animation of the humans!). Happy Feet features penguins dancing to hip-hop and the voice of Robin Williams... I know that I don't want to go anywhere near it. Pixar is basically unstoppable in this category whenever they are nominated, and for good reason. Their movies are the best-looking AND funniest CGI-animated movies coming out these days.
Who should win: Cars
Who will win: Cars
Who was left out: Hmmm... Barnyard: The Original Party Animals? Kidding.
[Read the full list of 2006 Oscar Nominees (and Winners), Linda's Best and Worst of the 2006 Academy Awards, and Vickie's Oscars 2006: The Good, the Bad, and the Lady Gays! wrap-up.]
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