Moviepie.com's Slice: Oscars 2007 - Moviepie's Picks and Predictions

OSCARS 2007: Picks and Predictions

Who Should Win, Who Will Win, and Who Was Left Out

[February 23, 2008] - by Linda

Check out the full list of nominees (and eventual winners!) of Oscar Nominations 2007. Plus we'll have our awards-show wrap-up after the Oscars on February 24th.

BEST PICTURE:

   Atonement
   Juno
   Michael Clayton
   No Country for Old Men
   There Will Be Blood

Every year, it seems, people complain that it's been a weak year for movies. It's hard to tell. For instance, I don't think Atonement or Michael Clayton would have gotten as many nominations as they did if they had been released, say, in April. But I think No Country for Old Men is one of the most fabulous Best Picture contenders I've seen in years. It blew me away in the first 10 minutes, and never slowed down. I've also heard great things about There Will Be Blood, a supposedly brilliant and more than a little weird oil-baron extravaganza. And what about Juno? Juno is probably the sentimental fave, a surprising (and fabulously written) comedy that first makes you laugh, then makes you care. If anything, little Juno (who is not so little when you look at its box office compared to the other four films), is the dark horse of the bunch. Still, I vote No Country, hands down.

Who should win: No Country for Old Men
Who will win: No Country for Old Men
Who was left out: For the first time, my favorite movie of the year is not only nominated, but it is favored to win! Woo-hoo! For once, I don't have complaints, though if Into the Wild had been nominated, it would have been totally deserving.

BEST DIRECTOR:

   Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
   Jason Reitman, Juno
   Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
   Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
   Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

I'll say right here: Go, Coen Brothers! That said, the most intriguing nominee here is Julian Schnabel, who created the completely original and visually fantastic The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Schnabel was, after all, an artist before he was a filmmaker. Anyone who has seen that film will not forget its visuals, from a paralyzed man's point-of-view and his imagination. Great stuff. We can all admire how difficult it is to direct a comedy like Juno, but comedies never get the respect they deserve, so sorry Jason Reitman. Tony Gilroy's taut and somber Michael Clayton is admirable, but not flashy in the way that the Academy notices. That leaves hipster-favorite Paul Thomas Anderson, who has been admired for his odd and distinct style for years, and Blood may be his best film yet. But it is the Coens' turn.

Who should win: Joel & Ethan Coen
Who will win: Joel & Ethan Coen
Who was left out: This year's "best picture nominee that directed itself" award goes to Atonement's Joe Wright, but I would have been more pleased to see Tim Burton for the goth-o-rific Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, or Sean Penn for Into the Wild.

BEST ACTOR:

   George Clooney, Michael Clayton
   Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
   Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
   Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
   Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

George Clooney should just be happy to be here. He recently won just a couple years ago, so he should just enjoy the honor. Alas, unfortunately, same goes for Viggo and Tommy Lee Jones. Both put in stellar performances this year, and both would (and should) win prizes galore any other year. Johnny Depp proved he had pipes enough to please Broadway geeks, and of course acting chops to please movie geeks to make his Sweeney Todd a winner on both counts. Except in this contest. Why will all these great actors go home empty handed? Because super-chameleon and universally admired Daniel Day-Lewis is back in the race, and waaayyyyy at the top of his game with his over-the-top and mesmerizing oil baron in There Will Be Blood.

Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who was left out: Irrfan Khan had a great year, with a stellar supporting turn in A Mighty Heart, but was the heart and soul of The Namesake, playing an immigrant trying to pass his culture on to his American kids.

BEST ACTRESS:

   Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
   Julie Christie, Away From Her
   Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
   Laura Linney, The Savages
   Ellen Page, Juno

Cate Blanchett scored a two-fer this year, also getting nominated for Supporting Actress... and she has a better shot in that category (since the Elizabeth sequel was not very well-liked). Laura Linney is always fab, but no one saw her movie, so this isn't her year. And now the race gets interesting. Julie Christie had all the early momentum, and what a great way to top off a career, with an Oscar over 40 years after her first (Christie won her for first for Darling in 1966, 42 years ago). But I remember hearing from friends who had seen Marion Cotillard's Edith Piaf months and months ago on the film festival circuit, and they said she was utterly fantastic. It has been out on DVD for awhile, so maybe voters have caught on. But then there is the current media and box office darling, the adorable and scruffy Juno, played by adorable and scruffy Ellen Page. She may sneak in and grab the gold on this one.

Who should win: Marion Cotillard
Who will win: I'm going out on a limb... Marion Cotillard
Who was left out: Angelina Jolie sounded like a shoo-in for A Mighty Heart. Alas. But I think I would have been happier to see Keri Russell for the adorable Waitress take the pie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

   Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
   Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
   Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
   Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
   Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

If anyone has an Oscar in his pocket already, it is Javier Bardem for his super-creepy portrayal of the mysterious Anton Chigurh (who might actually be the Devil) in No Country. Watch out for his coin-toss. So, once again, for folks like Tom Wilkinson (who played an unhinged lawyer), Casey Affleck (super-creepy as Jesse James' Number One Fan), Philip Seymour Hoffman (great as always as a scene-stealing CIA agent, but hey, he already won), they should just be happy for the nomination. But there is one nominee that everyone has a soft-spot for: 83-year-old Hal Holbrook, with his first nomination. He was just one of a fabulous supporting cast in Into the Wild, but sealed his nomination with his touching moment where he reached out one last time to the young, doomed adventurer Chris McCandless. So you can never, ever count out folks like Hal for a potential "We love your lifetime of work" award.

Who should win: Javier Bardem
Who will win: Javier Bardem
Who was left out: If Ruby Dee can be onscreen for five minutes and get a nomination, then I vote for Max Von Sydow in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, who played the lead character's senile father, and broke my heart into a million pieces with only two scenes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

   Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
   Ruby Dee, American Gangster
   Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
   Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
   Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Once again, the Best Supporting Actress category is one of the most intriguingly competitive of the show. The only person to count out is creepy little brat (I mean her character, of course) Saoirse Ronan. As for the rest of the women, momentum has shifted and keeps shifting. An early favorite was Cate Blanchett for her bafflingly cool and strange portrayal of a Bob Dylan character (who else could pull that off, really?). But then, there has been a lot of buzz for relative unknown Amy Ryan, blowing her co-stars out of the water, playing a fierce grieving mother in a crime drama. But then speaking of mothers, Ruby Dee may have shown up for only five minutes, playing the mom of Denzel's gangster, but she sure made an impression (and heck, like Holbrook, she is 83, and is a first-time nominee... this could be a career award). But finally, there is critics' indie-darling Tilda Swinton, who is just so inherently cool in anything she shows up in, that this may be her year.

Who should win: Amy Ryan
Who will win: Tilda Swinton
Who was left out: I heart Catherine Keener, and she once again proved how stellar she is as an aging hippie chick that becomes motheringly attached to a young drifter in Into the Wild. I also loved Charlotte Gainsbourg's heartbreaking work in I'm Not There, a film that frankly I didn't really "get".

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):

   Diablo Cody, Juno
   Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
   Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
   Ratatouille (written by Brad Bird; story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird)
   Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

What a cool category this year! Did you notice that three, count 'em, THREE of the nominated screenwriters are women? This category tends to be more daring than others, often celebrating the weird and quirky, hence the happy appearance of Lars and the Real Girl, and the slang-slinging Juno. It also showcases how fabulously written Pixar's animated films usually are (in this case, Ratatouille). Michael Clayton sure seems like it was based on a legal thriller, but alas, it was not. And The Savages tackles a subject that is always timely: adult children dealing with an aging parents, but does it with humor and heartbreak. But I'm pretty sure this one is going to the pregnant chick, which was the most quotable of the year.

Who should win: Juno
Who will win: Juno
Who was left out: Another sharply-written movie (stuttering and all) that made me laugh this year was the clever high school debate team comedy Rocket Science. And perhaps the biggest comedies of the year, Knocked Up and Superbad are surprisingly (or perhaps not, consider how vulgar they are) absent.

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTATION):

   Christopher Hampton, Atonement
   Sarah Polley, Away From Her
   Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
   Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
   Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

This category has many of the Best Picture nominees duking it out, but a couple scrappy others fighting to be noticed. Of the others, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly was a fantastic movie, but maybe it was fantastically directed. Its visuals are more memorable than its screenplay. Away From Her is incredibly moving, but is most memorable for its lead actress, who has the best chance for an award for the film. Of the Best Pictures, Atonement's whole tragedy was based on misunderstood words, whereas No Country actually relied more on mood than on dialogue, which might be the only thing to slow it down in this category. That leaves hipster Paul Thomas Anderson tweaking an age-old novel by Upton Sinclair, and turning it into a strangely timely fable. "I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!"

Who should win: There Will Be Blood
Who will win: No Country for Old Men
Who was left out: I have no idea why Sean Penn's work adapting Into the Wild wasn't nominated here. He made the bleak and frustrating book into a strangely uplifting, yet still frustrating tragedy.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

   Persepolis
   Ratatouille
   Surf's Up

Can anything stop Pixar in this category? It seems that every time they have a nomination in this category, they walk away with the prize, and I don't think surfing penguins will stop them this year. However, a French-language black and white cartoon based on an awesome graphic novel just may toss Ratatouille's rat to the side. Persepolis' tale of a sassy and rebellious girl growing up in conservative Iran is completely unique, gripping, and fabulous. Wouldn't it be great if it won?

Who should win: Persepolis
Who will win: Ratatouille
Who was left out: Spider-Pig, Spider-Pig, where the heck is the nomination for the hee-larious The Simpsons Movie?

[Read the full list of 2007 Oscar Nominees (and Winners) and our The Best and Worst of the 2007 Academy Awards.]

Home | Currently Playing | For Rent | Links | "Get to know us!"

�2008 Moviepie e-mail us

FREE counter and Web statistics from sitetracker.com